2012 Week 4 College Football Picks and Predictions

2012 Week 4 College Football Picks and Predictions

Week 3 is in the books. On a weekend where Alabama laid Arkansas’ slim National Championship (and SEC Championship for that matter) hopes to bed, Stanford put a dent in USC’s hopes of restoring themselves on top of the college football world. My weekend didn’t go as well as I planned, but I came out with an overall winning record. I ended up 9-6 by picking up Texas over Ole Miss and Hawaii over Lamar late. For the year, I’m now 22-13 picking ATS and 26-5 picking the winning team overall. I’ll try and be better about letting everyone else in on my late picks as they come up. I seem to do better when I don’t over analyze it and just go for it. As for this week, we’ve got some good games and a chance to really make some money this week. Let’s get after it.

Stat of the week: Texas Tech rolled over New Mexico 49-10. That in itself was not a huge surprise but how they did it was impressive. For the first time since 1998, Tech had 2 runners go over 100 yards rushing in Eric Stephens and Kenny Williams. It was the first time since 1998 that Tech went for over 300 yards rushing in a game as well. Add in Seth Doege’s 6 TD passes and 340 yards passing and Tech wound up with 702 total yards, the first time since 2009 that Tech has gone over 700 yards of offense in a game. Techs defense did their part as well, allowing only 127 yards and getting 6 3 and outs in the game.

Baylor @ Louisiana Monroe +7.5
The 2-0 Baylor Bears head on the road for the first time this season to take on 1-1 Louisiana Monroe. A week after stunning a top ten ranked Arkansas team in overtime the Warhawks took another SEC team to overtime before losing to Auburn. Baylor dispatched of SMU 59-24 in week 1 before outlasting FCS school Sam Houston State( a team SMU beat the next week 52-0) 48—23 in a game that wasn’t nearly as lopsided as the score indicated. Baylor never led by more than 4 points until there were 8 minutes left in the game. They closed out the game 24-0 and capped it off with a 73 yard interception return with 12 seconds left in the game to win. Baylor has proved they can score at will on anyone, but their defense has given up over 900 yards of offense and 47 points in 2 games. Louisiana Monroe should be pumped to get their first game at home after battling two SEC teams. I’d take Louisiana-Monroe +7.5 points.

Kentucky @ Florida -25
You’ve got to hand it to Will Muschamp and the Florida Gators. A week after going into College Station and outlasting Texas A&M they followed it up with an impressive 37-20 win over the Vols in Knoxville. Kentucky lost a stunner to Western Kentucky 32-31 in overtime and sits at 1-2 on the year. They could easily be the worst team in the SEC right now. I sided with Florida in week 2 and they made me a winner. I went against them last week and they proved me wrong. It’s in The Swamp, Florida fans should be pumped to know that their team is part of a legitimate 3 team SEC East race. I think Florida rolls at home. Florida -25.

Missouri @ South Carolina -10
Missouri raced out to a 17 point lead before fending off Arizona State late 24-20 to move to 2-1 on the season. Their prize? A trip to Columbia, S.C. and their first SEC road trip. South Carolina sits at 3-0 on the year and after struggling in their first game against Vanderbilt, they have rolled offensively to the tune of 97 points and 1,029 yards offensively while only allowing 16 points and 670 yards. I don’t think South Carolina will blow out Missouri like they have their past two opponents, but them winning by two touchdowns is a pretty good bet. South Carolina-10

Florida Atlantic @ Alabama -50.5
What should have been a battle of top ten teams turned into an absolute laugher in Arkansas Saturday afternoon as Alabama rolled to a 52-0 laugher against an undermanned and outmatched Hogs squad. Coming in to the 2012 year, people questioned whether or not a inexperienced but talented Alabama defense could live up to a defense that 3 first round draft picks on it. All they’ve proceeded to do this year is allow 14 points and 630 total yards in 3 games. Florida Atlantic might be one of the worst teams in Div. 1 football. I can see Alabama pitching their 3rd shutout in 4 games this year but will Nick Saban and AJ McCarron take their foot off the throttle once they jump out to a huge lead? I think Alabama rolls in this game, and beating Florida Atlantic by 50 points is very attainable for the Tide but I think Florida Atlantic + 50.5 points is what I’m taking. Florida Atlantic+50.5

LSU @ Auburn +18.5
LSU heads on the road for the first time this year to face the 1-2 Tigers in Auburn, Alabama on Saturday night. LSU is 3-0 thanks in large part to an upgrade in QB with Zach Mettenberger and an offense that has averaged 48 points and 472 yards a game while the defense has allowed a stingy 10 points and 205 yards a game. Auburn picked up their first win of the season Saturday by outlasting Louisiana Monroe in overtime. For the season Auburn has averaged 336 yards and 20 points a game while allowing 442 yards and 27.3 points a game. All signs point to this being a blow out, and I think the Bayou Bengals are hungry and ready to prove that they aren’t overlooking anyone in route to a matchup with Alabama later this year. I see this game settling in around 35-14 in LSU’s favor. LSU -18.5

Vanderbilt @ Georgia -16
The 1-2 Vanderbilt Commodores head to Athens, Georgia on Saturday night for a date with Aaron Murray and the Georgia Bulldogs. Georgia has averaged 47 points and 517 yards of offense per game so far this year, and while all 3 of their wins have been blowouts it has taken them a while to put teams away for good. Vanderbilt has had trouble winning but they’ve been in every game they’ve played this year. I think Vandy can move the ball here but Georgia will win by 10. Vanderbilt +16.

Kansas St @ Oklahoma -14
Bill Snyder and his Wildcats rumble into Norman, Oklahoma for a matchup against Bob Stoops and the Oklahoma Sooners. Kansas State picked up right where they left off last year, with an offense that doesn’t trick anyone but moves the ball effectively and a defense that is sneakily good. Bob Stoops and the Sooners have had two weeks to prepare for this game after struggling with UTEP in their first game and blowing by Florida A&M in week two. I could see this being a slugfest, and while I think Oklahoma wins, I think Kansas State keeps it close. Kansas State +14.

Clemson @ Florida State -14
10th ranked Clemson heads to Tallahassee to challenge the 4th ranked Seminoles. Clemson is 3-0 on the year by winning over Auburn, Ball State, and Furman. Florida States wins haven’t been much better, outscoring Murray State, Savannah State, and Wake Forest 176-3. It’s hard to tell whether either of these teams are legit title contenders based on the teams they have played so far. We know both of them can score points. I think Florida State very well could win but I’ll take Clemson and the points. Clemson +14.

Arizona @ Oregon -23.5
We’ve got a top 25 matchup this week as Arizona rolls into Autzen Stadium to battle the Oregon Ducks on Saturday Night. Rich Rodriguez seems to have rejuvenated the Arizona Wildcats quicker than most people thought while Chip Kelly and the Oregon Ducks have been running rampant over lesser opponents as usual. Chip Kelly seems to be taking it easy in the 2nd half against opponents in non-conference play and I would expect that to change this week. Oregon won by 25 last year in Arizona. It’s hard to imagine them not winning by at least that many this year with a chance for Oregon to make a statement following USC’s loss to Stanford last week. Oregon -23.5

Michigan @ Notre Dame -6.5
Another college football season, another year of Notre Dame fans wondering if they “are back”. I’m not ready to announce that Brian Kelly and Notre Dame are back, but they dominated and exposed a Michigan State squad that is expected to challenge for the Big 10 title this year to move to 3-0 on the season. Following the week 1 debacle against Alabama Michigan has responded nicely and moved it’s record to 2-1 on the season following a 63-13 dismantling of UMASS. While the Notre Dame offense might not be moving full steam right now, the defense has picked up the slack, allowing only 10 points a game so far. It’s a night game in South Bend, Brian Kelly began preaching immediately after the Michigan State win to remind themselves that they hadn’t done anything yet, and hopefully they haven’t forgotten last years heart breaking loss against Michigan. I think Notre Dame wins by 7.

Quick Hit of the week:
I’m going on a 3 team, 10 point teaser for this week. It’s a quick way to double your money and give you extra points if you aren’t sure on a team.
Eastern Michigan @ Michigan State –22.5 (take 10 off 32.5 opening)
Everyone now knows that Michigan State is a fairly one dimensional offense. That doesn’t mean that Eastern Michigan will be able to stop the rushing attack of Michigan State or move the ball on Michigan States defense. Michigan State -22.5 is a good bet
Florida Atlantic @ Alabama -60.5 (add 10 to Bamas total)
Alabama very well may shut out the Owls, but I don’t expect Nick Saban to run the score up. Taking Florida Atlantic +60.5 (50.5 point spread + 10 point teaser) is the way to go.
UAB @ Ohio State -47.5 (add 10 to Ohio States total)
You know Ohio State will run away with this game. We also know that UAB should be good for 10-14 points and that means the Buckeyes will have to go over 57 points if that holds true. I’m taking UAB + 47.5 points