The Tampa Bay Lightning head into Tuesday night’s contest as losers of their last 5 games, including three straight at Amalie arena. This a great buy-low spot for a Tampa Bay Lightning team that has been dominant at home all year.
The Tampa Bay Lightning are 22-5-4 at home, tying the Hurricanes for the third most home wins in the League. The Lightning has also covered the spread in 16 of their 31 games this year. Despite three straight losses, backing Tampa Bay at home this year has been very profitable.
Placing one unit on the Lightning against the spread in every home game would put bettors up 4.74U this season.
Tampa Bay Defense
Many of the problems that have recently faced the Bolts have to do with the defense. The Lightning has given up 4+ goals in 6-out-of-7 and 8 of their last 10. The two games where they did not reach that mark came at Detroit, where Andrei Vasilevskiy had 45 saves, and against the Ducks, who simply don’t have the offensive firepower it takes to break down the Lightning offense.
The Flyers seem to fall into the same category as the Ducks. Philadelphia has exceeded the three-goal mark just once since the start of February (1-out-of-12 games). The Lightning, meanwhile, has reached four goals in 22/31 home games this year.
The Lightning is second in the league in high-danger scoring chances, while the Flyers rank 7th in high-danger chances allowed. The Bolts have won four of their last five against the Flyers, outscoring Philly 21-7 over that span.
A “Get Right Spot”
Ultimately this spot comes down to trusting the Lightning to get right. Had the team not lost five straight, the public would be all over the Bolts on the puck line. Understanding that the season is long and every team goes through these types of slumps is a big part of playing a team in a “get right spot.” This team hasn’t had much to play for, but after losing five straight, Tampa should certainly have all the motivation needed.
Although there is certainly cause for concern with the Bolts defense, I don’t think the Flyers have the offense to take advantage of the Lightning in this situation. I would take the Lightning -1.5 (-125) against the Flyers on Tuesday night.