It sure seems “Way too Early” for the 2021 World Series prediction. Spring training hasn’t even started yet. How could we possibly have any idea which team is likely to win the World Series with out a single ball pitched and without a single bat cracked?
Well, there is some help in analyzing statistics to predict future performance. Baseball Prospectus has released the annual projections for every Major League Baseball team. CBS Sports MLB Power rankings just released their picks and of course various Sports Book have released their World Series Odds.
So here goes. A discussion that for some seems a bit premature, but one that has its outcome steeped in statistics and a little bit of guess work based on player past performance.
On FanDuel the odds show the Los Angeles Dodgers (+450) and the New York Yankees (+490) as the favorites with the LA dodgers projected to win the Championship. They are followed by the San Diego Padres (+850) and the Atlanta Braves and the Chicago White Sox (+950).
According to the Power Rankings, the LA Dodgers, last year’s World Series Champions, were an easy pick as the number 1 team in baseball for 2021. Traditionally, there are no repeat champions in baseball. There is one exception, the NY Yankees who won three in a row from 1998-2000.
Since that time, over 20 years has passed and not one team has had a consecutive win. But the collective thinking is that this may be the year for a repeat because LA is considered to be the best team now. They appear to have it all.
LA has three Cy Young contenders with Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler and the reigning National League Cy Yong winner, Trevor Bauer. Although Trevor Bauer, recently signed with the Dodgers as a free agent, he was considered a controversial pick by many, as he has been aggressive on Twitter and off-putting on social media.
He has assured everyone that he has learned a lot and will just concentrate on Pitching rather than fanning the flames from his Twitter account. Additionally, they also have Julio Urias, Dustin May, and David Price, former 2019 Cy Young winner, in the rotation.
The Dodgers’ have been grooming many young players and their organizational depth has been outstanding for years. Dustin May and Julio Urias and another player, Walker Buehler, are all 25 or younger.
There are young position players too that are thought to be outstanding or at least have plenty of upside. Will Smith is 25 and he has plenty of promise as a catcher. Infielder Gavin Lux, is only 22 and considered an up and comer.
Of course, in addition to youth, the Dodgers have plenty of depth. They also have 2 MVP position players with Cody Bellinger and Mookie Betts and third base star, Justin Turner, recently a free agent, just announced that he was resigning from the Dodgers.
As a result of such a collection of talent, the LA Dodgers seem to have everything they need to win this 2021 World Series.
According to Baseball Prospectus, the Los Angeles Dodgers are predicted to finish the upcoming season with the best record in Major League Baseball with 102 wins. They are the only team that statistically breaks the 100 game win mark.
Although the Prospectus recognizes that the Padres who are greatly improved this year, are not far behind, the Dodgers have a 78.4% chance to win the West for the ninth season in a row.
The Yankees are estimated to win their division with 97 wins and an 81.1% chance to top their division in 2021. Do they have a chance to best the Dodgers? Only time will tell. But the odds are on LA.