The NFL is nearing its midway point of the season. Two of the most disappointing teams in the league will kick start Week 8 of the NFL season as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-4) host the Baltimore Ravens (4-3) on Thursday, October 27. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m (ET) at Raymond James Stadium, with the action streaming on Amazon Prime.
Baltimore, expected to compete for the AFC title, has not found any consistency as the Ravens have alternated wins and losses throughout the season. The Ravens are tied with the Bengals atop the AFC North, although all three losses are to conference opponents. They are coming off a win on Sunday as they held on to defeat Cleveland 23-20 behind two scores and 66 rushing yards from Gus Edwards in his first action of the year.
Meanwhile, Tampa Bay is tied for first in the NFC South basically by default, as the Buccaneers have struggled mightily over the last five weeks. The Bucs managed just 322 yards of offense and no touchdowns in Sunday’s 21-3 loss to Carolina, marking their fourth setback in the last five weeks.
Baltimore is a 1.5-point favorite, with the over/under set at 45 points. The Ravens are -125 on the money line, while the Buccaneers are +105.
Leonard Fournette Under 51.5 Rushing Yards (-125)
Fournette under the total seems like the biggest no-brainer of all prop bets. The Buccanneers have the worst rushing attack in the league, averaging only 3.0 yards per carry and a little over 64 yards a game. They accumulated just 48 yards on the ground on Sunday against the Panthers, with Fournette garnering 19 yards on eight carries.
Fournette averages a career-low 3.5 yards per carry and 51.7 yards per game. Those numbers would be much worse if not for his 127 yards in the season-opener against the Cowboys. He has failed to reach the 50-yard mark in three of his last five contests.
Moreover, rookie Rachaad White has taken snaps away from Fournette, as he has been on the field for 20 plays in three of the last four games. White, who has run better the last couple of appearances, set a career-high with 24 yards on six carries on Sunday.
Tampa Bay runs the ball just over 22% of its plays at home, compared to 32.6% for the season, and has produced 35 yards per game in three home games. Furthermore, the Ravens have been better against the run over the last three games. The Ravens allow 3.9 yards per carry over the previous three games, which ranks fifth in the league during this stretch, and is down from their season average of 4.5 yards per attempt.
Gus Edwards Over 46.5 Rushing Yards
This seems like the second no-brainer of the night as long as Edwards doesn’t have any restrictions. Edwards was impressive in his first action since returning from an ACL injury that cost him all last season, totaling 66 yards on 16 attempts on Sunday, including a long run of 12 yards. The 27-year-old, who averages over five yards per carry for his career, will likely get the majority of the carries for the Ravens – as long as he remains healthy – despite being in an essential timeshare with Kenyan Drake and Justice Hill.
However, running the ball is what the Ravens do best, so there should be plenty of carries to go around. The Ravens average the fifth most rushing yards a game in the league at 156.3, and they have upped that number to 175.3 over the last three contests. Baltimore totaled 160 yards on 44 carries against the Browns.
Tampa Bay’s run defense is average at best. The Buccanneers allow 118.3 yards per game on the ground though that number has increased to 133.7 over the last trio of contests. The Bucs permitted 173 rushing yards to the Panthers on Sunday and are giving up 135.7 yards at home this season.
Other Best Bets
Lamar Jackson Under 206.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Over 13 points Second Quarter (-125)
Mike Evans Over 66.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Chris Godwin Under 71.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
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