The 2021 NFL season officially kicks off on Thursday night when the Dallas Cowboys travel to Raymond James Stadium to take on the reigning Super Bowl Champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers. There’s a lot of money to be won this season, and the 2021 NFL MVP odds have one player that I believe is getting disrespected to the point where he is a value play.
Now, let’s look at a little history to figure out where not to bet. A quarterback has won every MVP since then-Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson won it back in 2012. That means from an odds standpoint, and you are throwing away money if you go outside of the quarterback position. That’s why we are targeting Tom Brady.
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Why Tom Brady?
Well, that’s a great question. Tom Brady is coming off his seventh Super Bowl victory and had a full season and his first preseason with the Buccaneers now. The team has returned all 22 starters from that Super Bowl team, so chemistry is definitely there. Some sportsbooks have Tom Brady listed at +1200 to win this season’s MVP.
Having wide receivers like Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Antonio Brown helps. Having tight ends Rob Gronkowski, and a healthy OJ Howard doesn’t hurt either. This team has weapons and has the potential to go a perfect 17-0 during this season. If they do that, it’s going to be difficult to give the trophy to anyone else.
Tampa Bay has an easy division as the Saints, Falcons, and Panthers are not matching up well against them. He threw for 40 touchdowns last season, and 50 isn’t out of the realm of possibilities either. An easy schedule and a healthy Brady as he recovered from a torn MCL in his knee that he played through all season long. All factors are pointing his way.
But What About Mahomes and Rodgers?
Now it’s time to discredit two of the best players under center that the NFL has ever seen. We will start with Patrick Mahomes first.
Mahomes is an other-worldly QB, but I still don’t love his offensive line. He also had a knee injury during the season that forced him to miss a couple of games. However, the biggest factor is running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire. I think he gets an increased workload from where he was during his rookie season, and the stats he puts up are going to neutralize what Mahomes can do for his MVP resume this year.
Aaron Rodgers won the MVP Award last season, but Peyton Manning was the last player to win it in back-to-back seasons. However, his offseason spat with the front office of the Green Bay Packers and contemplating retirement makes me feel like he has one foot out the door this season, and his numbers will reflect that to an extent.
Tom Brady finds a way to put a chip on his shoulder and motivates himself to do so. He is currently tied with Rodgers with three on his resume, so adding a fourth could solidify things a little more for him. Brady at +1200 to win the NFL MVP this season is a steal, and the sportsbooks are asking for a crime to happen.