There is, of course, no sure thing in NFL betting. You just want to find your way to more wins than losses so that you can turn a profit.
But the Kansas City Chiefs offense is as close to a sure thing as there is. And when it comes to guaranteeing that you will have more wins than losses by the end of the season, taking the over on the Chiefs is always the smart bet.
Reason One – Andy Reid
It starts at the top with future Hall of Fame head coach Andy Reid. Big Red, as he’s known by his players, is an offensive genius. He turns average players into Pro Bowlers and great players into Super Bowl MVPs.
Eight times as the head coach of the Eagles, his team ranked in the top 10 in points scored, and that’s happened five times since he arrived in Kansas City, including ranks of sixth (2017), first (2018), and fifth (2019).
Reason Two – Patrick Mahomes
A couple of seasons ago, there was some chatter that Reid was getting ready to retire. Then, right before this season began, he signed a six-year contract extension, keeping him employed until the age of 68.
One big reason he isn’t going anywhere is that finally, after all his years as a head coach, he has his dream quarterback.
Patrick Mahomes has a league MVP, a Super Bowl MVP, and a 5,000-yard, 50-touchdown season, and all by the age of 24. He’s on pace to shatter every scoring record in the books.
As we saw in the 2019 postseason, no matter the deficit, Mahomes is a threat to score. And score again. And score yet again.
He led Kansas City to come-from-behind-by-double-digits wins against the Texans, Titans, and 49ers on his way to winning the Super Bowl. The average total score in those three games was 64 points.
He actually just scored again.
Reason Three – Mahomes’ Weapons
Mahomes is a great quarterback, full stop. But this offense hums so smoothly because of the connections he has with his tight end Travis Kelce and the fastest wide receiver in the NFL in Tyreek Hill.
Mahomes and Kelce are beer-drinking buddies off the field, which translates to a special ESP between the two when on the field. Right now, there is no better quarterback-tight end connection anywhere in football.
As for Hill, he came into this season already with 44 career touchdowns and an eye-popping 40.8-yard average for those 44 touchdowns. He literally can score from anywhere on the field.
And if Hill doesn’t get you, Sammy Watkins will. Or second-year wideout Mecole Hardman and his eight touchdowns as a rookie.
Now there’s rookie running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire, giving Reid and Mahomes almost too many weapons for just one football.
Reason Four – The Defense is Meh
The Chiefs do have some true defensive stars in Chris Jones and Frank Clark on the line, and Tyrann Mathieu at safety. But at cornerback, the team is thin and inexperienced.
The Chiefs also have one of the worst collection of linebackers in the league, and overall, even though there was improvement in 2019 under new defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, this defense will give up points. In 2019, the defense ranked 17th in the NFL, following ranking 31st in 2018 and 28th in 2017.
This is why the Chiefs are such a great bet to go over each week. They have the perfect combination of a high-octane offense that has no slower gear, and a defense that struggles at times to slow down the opponent.
If you bet the Chiefs over every week, by the end of the season, you will be a winner.