It’s a seven-game slate in the MLB for the night slate; however, there are a lot of good games to watch. For example, Jacob deGrom, the best pitcher in baseball, is on the mound against the Atlanta Braves, and a high under/over 11.5 total in the Saint Louis Cardinals vs Colorado Rockies game. Here is my pick and reasons for Padres vs Reds, tonight’s slate in the MLB!
Padres vs Reds Predictions
The Cincinnati Reds (39-40) will be hosting the red-hot San Diego Padres (49-33). The Reds had a nice little winning streak in the middle of June, then lost their next five games, and then stayed above one game above .500 after splitting a series against the Atlanta Braves.
The San Diego Padres will have Ryan Weathers on the mound while the Cincinnati Reds will have Luis Castillo on the opposite side. The Padres are trying to close the gap between the NL West leaders, San Francisco Giants while the Reds are sporting the seventh-best batting average as a unit at .248. The first pitch will take place at 7:10 EST.
San Diego Padres Betting Preview
On the mound for the Padres, tonight will be left-handed pitcher, Ryan Weathers. He currently has a 3-2 record, a 2.47 ERA, and a 1.01 WHIP in 47.1 innings of work this season. Judging by those numbers, it’s easy to say that he is having a great rookie campaign, but he is not amazing, but he also isn’t terrible.
He currently has an xFIP of 4.50 and an 18.5% strikeout rate this season. He also gives up a 41% fly-ball rate that could be a problem in a smaller ballpark like Great American. A hard hit rate of 43.4% is also something that the Reds could take advantage of because this team loves to make successful contact.
Players like Nick Castellanos who has a .346 batting average with 16 home runs could take advantage of this matchup. Dating back to the start of last season, Castellanos has a .270 ISO and a .398 wOBA versus left-handed pitchers.
Tyler Stephenson may have a small size against lefties but has a good fly-ball rate. Another player who can hit the ball over the warning track is Aristides Aquino who should be in the lineup tonight.
Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview
The Cincinnati Reds will have Luis Castillo, a right-hander, pitching for them tonight who is holding a 3-10 record, a 5.14 ERA, and a 1.48 WHIP in 84.0 innings on the hill this year. There is no doubt that this is not the Castillo that the league is accustomed to as he has struggled to get things going.
However, he has been pitching better as he threw a seven-inning scoreless effort in his last start against the Atlanta Braves. In that game, he gave up six hits, struck out six, and walked two batters. To add to the positive sign, he has a 1.71 ERA in his last five starts.
On the other hand, Castillo has an xFIP of 3.96 and a K rate of 21.4%. If you take a look at yesterday’s game, one of the best pitchers in baseball, Joe Mosgrove, gave up four hits, three walks, and two home runs to the opposing batters, which accounted for five runs in a short four-inning start.
The San Diego Padres may be a top-five team, a World Series contender, and are winning at a high rate. However, Weathers does not go deep in ball games and may face numerous challenges when going up against batters who have crushed lefties this season. Take the Cincinnati Reds at -108.
Pick: Cincinnati Reds ML -108
That’s all for today, folks! Join us tomorrow for a brand-new batch of sports betting picks and predictions!